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Place Financial Advisors Weekly Newsletter


Oct 27, 2009 at 6:46 pm

Welcome to Place Financial Advisors Weekly Newsletter

Good Afternoon!

Each week I will be sending out a weekly newsletter that analyzes and gives you a better understanding of the Stock Market, along with focusing on specific aspects and what it means to you as an investor.

Over the last 3 months, the value of the dollar has fallen by 5%, playing a significant role in the +20% rise in the price of oil over the same time period.  Since oil is priced worldwide in dollars, any fall in the American currency is an immediate hit to oil producers throughout the globe.  Not surprisingly,

what the oil producing countries lose as a result of the falling dollar, they are able to make-up directly through rising oil prices

(source: BTN Research).

The 100th bank failure nationwide of calendar year 2009 occurred last Friday, the highest number the US has had since 1992.  However this year’s rate of failure (i.e., 1 bank closure every 3 days) has a long ways to go to match the “1 a day” rate that the US experienced over the 5 years of 1987-91, a period that saw 1,901 closures of banks and savings & loans, including 534 alone during 1989 (source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation).

The expansion (or shrinkage) in the size of the US economy during the 3rd quarter will be reported by the government on Thursday.  The result is expected to show a growing economy after 4 consecutive quarters of contraction (source: Commerce Department).

Notable Numbers for the Week:

1.      NOT WHAT THEY EXPECTED – From its bull market peak in October 2007 to its bear market low in March 2009, the S&P 500 fell 57% (i.e., the change of the raw index value not counting the impact of dividends).  28% of more than 3,000 American investors surveyed in May and June 2009 admitted the 57% stock market “peak to trough” tumble came as a “complete surprise” to them.  The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the US stock market (source: Vanguard Center for Retirement Research).

2.      WHAT’S FOR DINNER? – The consumer price index (CPI) declined 1.3% for the 1-year ending 9/30/09.  One component of the overall index is “food,” representing 15% of the total index.  The food index declined 0.2% for the 1-year ending 9/30/09, its first year-over-year decrease since April 1967 or more than 42 years ago.  The CPI is a measure of inflation compiled by the US Bureau of Labor Studies (source: Department of Labor).

3.      OLD AND GRAY – 10% of the US population was age 65 or older in 1970, but that group represents 13% of our nation today.  By the year 2025, 18% of our population will be age 65 or older (source: United Nations)

4.      MILLIONAIRES – As of the end of calendar year 2008, 1 out of every 44 households in the USA had a net worth of at least $1 million not counting the value of their primary residence (source: Census Bureau, Merrill Lynch).

Past Performance is not a guarantee of future results.  The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index and you cannot directly invest into an index. The above communication is written by Michael A. Higley.  Mr. Higley is not an employee of Cambridge Investment Research and any comments, opinions or facts listed are those of Mr. Higley.

10/26/09 Monday

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