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Place Financial Advisors Weekly Newsletter, November 9, 2009


Nov 09, 2009 at 3:50 pm

Good Afternoon!

The S&P 500 shrugged off some disappointing but not unexpected economic news on Friday, gaining +3.3% (total return) for the week and pushing the widely followed stock index to a +20.9% YTD performance.  The nation’s monthly jobs report provided the financial fireworks as our country’s unemployment rate reached double-digits (10.2%), its highest level since April 1983.  There are 15.7 million unemployed Americans and another 9.3 million individuals working part-time while seeking full-time employment.  Just 2 years ago, our nation had 7.2 million unemployed workers and just 4.3 million people working part-time by necessity, not by choice.  36% of the nation’s unemployed have been out of work for at least 27 weeks (source: Department of Labor).

The Fed completed its next-to-last scheduled meeting of 2009 on Wednesday, announcing that it “expects inflation to remain subdued for some time.”  The government reported another 5 banks failed last week, bringing the year’s total to 120, its highest calendar year figure since 1992 (source: Federal Reserve, FDIC).

The House of Representatives passed its version of health care reform on Saturday night with just 2 votes to spare.  The 220-215 passage of H.R. 3962 (named the “Affordable Health Care for America Act”) garnered just 1 Republican vote while 39 Democrats voted against the bill.  Debate in the Senate on the issue may not begin until December (source: House, Senate).

Notable Numbers for the Week:

1. EXPECTATIONS – 42% of more than 3,000 American investors surveyed in May and June 2009 believe the long term average annual return of stocks in the future will be at least 9% before-tax.  The average annual total return for the S&P 500 over the last half-century (i.e., the 50-years from 1959-2008) is +9.2% per year.  The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the US stock market (source: Vanguard, BTN Research).

2. DOCTOR ORDERED – Americans had 3 million CAT scans (i.e., computerized axial tomography) in 1980 compared to 60 million CAT scans that are performed annually today (source: Christopher Moore, Newsweek).

3. OVERWEIGHT – The House of Representatives debated the House Democrats’ health care bill this last weekend.  The bill is 1,990 pages long, 8 ¼ inches tall and weighs 19.6 pounds (source: House).

4. UNRELIABLE – Less than 1 in 4 Americans today (23%) trust that our nation’s elected officials in Washington (i.e., House, Senate and the White House) will do “the right thing” a majority of the time, the lowest percentage recorded in a dozen years (source: NBC News).

Past Performance is not a guarantee of future results.  The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index and you cannot directly invest into an index. The above communication is written by Michael A. Higley.  Mr. Higley is not an employee of Cambridge Investment Research and any comments, opinions or facts listed are those of Mr. Higley.

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