The Heat Is On: Memorial Day Forecast Points To Sizzlin’ Summer Travel

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CNY – The unofficial start to summer will be a busy one this year as AAA predicts 39.2 million people will travel 50 miles or morefrom home this Memorial Day weekend.
This is an increase of 8.3 percent over 2021, bringing travel volumes almost in line with those in 2017. Air travel continues to rebound, up 25 percent over last year, the second-largest increase since 2010.
With volumes closing in on pre-pandemic levels, AAA urges travelers to book now and remember flexibility is key this Memorial Day weekend. “Memorial Day isalways a good predictor of what’s to come for summer travel,” Senior AAA Travel Vice President Paula Twidale said.
“Based on our projections, summer travel isn’t just heating up, it will be on fire. People are overdue for a vacation and they are looking to catch up on some much-needed R&R in the coming months.”
Air travel volume, which began to rally last Thanksgiving, will hit levels just shy of 2019 with 3 million people expected to take to the skies this Memorial Day weekend. In fact, the percentage of people traveling by air will surpass 2019 levels with seven percent of travelers choosing air travel as their preferred mode.
Air travel has faced several challenges since the beginning of the year,” continued Twidale. “With the type of volume we anticipate, we continue to recommend the safety net ofa travel agent andtravel insurance. Both are a lifesaver if something unexpectedly derails your travel plans.
How to Travel Stress-Free This Summer:
Memorial Day weekend is expected to be the busiest in two years, building on an upward trend that began earlier this spring. This year’s forecast marks the second-highest single-year increase in travelers since 2010 (2021 was the highest), bringing volumes almost in line with pre-pandemiclevels.
Despite historic gas prices, breaching the $4 mark in early March, 34.9 million people plan to travel by car, up 4.6 percent over last year. A greater portion of travelers are opting for air and other modes of travel than in previous years. Share of car travel fell from 92.1 la percent last year to 88.9 percent this year, a slight indication that higher prices at the pump are having an impact on how people choose to travel this Memorial Day.
Regardless of which mode they choose, travelers should prepare for a busy holiday weekend. Plan, plan and then plan some more. Book travel plans now if you haven’t already – the earlier the better to lock in the best rate and any discounts for pre-paying in full.
Flights, car rentals, accommodations, tours, cruisesand other activities
are in high demand and availability is filling up. Prices are already skewing higher and with greater demand, finding last-minute deals is unlikely.
•Air—AAA finds that the average lowestairfare is 6 percent more than last year coming in at $184/ticket, with Saturday being the most expensive day to fly and Monday the least.
•Hotels—Mid-range hotel rates have increased about 42 percent, with the average lowest nightly rates ranging between approximately $199 –$257/night for AAA Approved Hotels.
•Car Rentals—Daily car rental rates have decreased 16 percent compared to last year, with the average lowestrate coming in at $100/day. Remember, flexibility is important when considering Memorial Day travel plans–look to travel on off-peak times or days, pick a hidden gem closer to home or opt to stay at an all-inclusive resort with plenty of on-site activities.
This limits the need for a rental car and paying a la carte for entertainment and dining. Based on AAA booking data, Thursday is shaping up to be the busiest day for air travel during the Memorial Day travel period (May 26 –May 30) with Monday being the lightest. For those hitting the road, Thursday and Fridayare anticipated to be peak traffic days. AAA suggests reducing stress by:
  • Arriving at the airport at least two hours early for domestic flights and threehours for international.
  • Consider booking a flight during non-peak travel periods to cut down on wait times.
  • Hittingthe road when there’s less trafficand allowing extra time when traveling toyour destination. For the 34.9million Americans hitting the road, it’s always advisable to get your vehicle road-trip readywith a full vehicle inspection. AAA expects to respond toover 388,000calls for help over the Memorial Dayholiday weekend. Getkey components checked like the battery, fuel system, tires, brakes and fluid levels and make sure your vehicle’s emergency kit is fully stocked.
Big Cities and Beaches are Top Destinations. AAA booking data reveals that big cities and beaches are top destinations this Memorial Day, both domestically and abroad: 2022 Top Memorial Day Destinations include: U.S Destinations International, Destinations Orlando, FL, Vancouver, Canada, Seattle WA, Dublin Ireland, Miami FL, Paris France, Las Vegas NV, Rome Italy, Anaheim CA, London England, New York, NY, Cancun Mexico, Denver CO, Amsterdam Netherlands, Anchorage AK, Barcelona Spain, Boston MA, Nassau Bahamas, Honolulu HI, and Calgary Canada.
Remember Your Travel Essentials:
At the start of planning any trip, AAA reminds travelers not to forget the essentials –working with a travel agent and investigating travel insurance. A travel agent is an industry expert with many resources at their disposal to help plan and organize a trip that fits your individual needs and budget. They can easily look at a variety of options and scenarios to find savings not always available to the public. Plus if something goes wrong, your travel agent becomes your advocate –they will handle the logistics of changing or re-booking reservations.
AAA also highly recommends travel insurance to coverunexpected delays or trip interruptions. Travel insurance provides a safety net should something unexpected happen ahead of or during your trip. Travel agents can also advise on what travelinsurance policy makes the most sense. They know you, your trip, your budget and your specific needs.
Roads Will Be Busy:
INRIX predicts drivers will encounter the longest travel delays before the holiday weekend, particularly during the afternoons on Thursday, May 26 and Friday, May 27. Drivers in major U.S. metros could experience double the travel times compared to a normal trip.
“Even with a significant increase in gas prices, we expect a large jump in holiday driving compared to the last few years,” INRIX Transportation Analyst Bob Pishue said. “Drivers should expect congestion on major roadways around big citiesand popular destinations. Knowing when and where congestion will build can help drivers avoid the stress of sitting in traffic.”
Remember –Stay Safe and Patient:
While most COVID-19 restrictions have eased, it’s important to keep safety in mind for yourself and others. Also, with a busy travel season, it’s easy to lose patience but remember, everyone has a common goal – getting to their destination safely. For those looking to take a few extra precautions, AAA recommends:
  • Traveling with your bubble. This type of travelrose to popularity during the pandemic when many opted to vacation with people they were in close contact with. Consider taking a group trip to divvy up costs for things like activities and accommodations. If everyone is spread out, a travel agent can help manage the logistics.
Worst Corridors and Times to TravelMetro Area Corridor Peak Congestion percent Over Normal:
AtlantaI-85 S, Clairmont Rd to MLK Dr5/26/22, 3:30-5:30pm128%
BostonI-93 S, Purchase St to MA-245/26/22, 2:30-4:30pm110%
ChicagoI-290 E,IL-110to Racine Ave5/26/22,3:30-5:30pm131%
DetroitI-96 W, 6 Mile Rd to Walled Lake5/27/22, 3:00-5:00pm65%
HoustonI-69 N, I-610 to I-105/27/22, 4:45-6:45pm88%
Los AngelesI-5 S, Colorado St to Florence Ave5/27/22, 4:45-6:45pm123%New YorkI-278 W,
Long Island Expressto39thSt5/26/22, 3:15-5:15pm161%
San FranciscoI-80 W,Gilman Stto Civic Center5/26/22, 5:45-7:45pm105%
SeattleI-5 S, WA-18 to WA-75/27/22, 5:00-7:00pm112%
Washington DCI-95 S,I-495to VA-1235/26/22, 3:45-5:45pm77%
Daily Worst and Best Times to Travel -Day Worst Time/Best Time:
Thursday: 1:00-8:00 p.m. before 6:00a.m. or after 9:00 p.m.
Friday: 12:00-7:00 p.m. before 7:00 a.m. or after 9:00 p.m.
Saturday: 1:00-6:00p.m. before 10:00 .a.m
Sunday: 1:00-4:00 p.m. before 10:00a.m.
Monday:1:00-4:00 p.m. before 11:00a.m.
Source: INRIX
  • When booking a place to stay, look for accommodations that prioritize cleanliness and have implemented additional housekeeping standards since the start of the pandemic. In 2021, AAA enhanced its housekeeping evaluation to include objective, scientific validation of the cleanliness of common surfaces throughout hotels. Hotels that meet these new standard sare now recognized as Inspected Clean. Look for this designationor to browse all of AAA’s Diamond properties, click here.
  • Everything from airports to restaurants to attractions will be busier this Memorial Day, which means more people congregating. AAA advises travelers to follow CDC guidance, which at this time, is still recommending that people wear masks in indoor public transportation settings (airports, bus/train terminals, public transportation like subways/metros, airplanes, trains and buses).

Forecast Methodology:

In cooperation with AAA, IHS Markit- a world leader in critical information, analytics and expertise – developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes.

The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from IHS Markit’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment; output; household net worth; asset prices including stock indices; interest rates; housing market indicators and variables related to travel and tourism, including prices of gasoline, airline travel and hotel stays.

AAA and IHS Markit have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000. Historical travel volume estimates come from DK SHIFFLET’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/Monitorsm. The PERFORMANCE/Monitorsmis a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents.

DK SHIFFLET contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior — all after the trips have been taken. The travel forecast is reported in person-trips.

In particular, AAA and IHS Markit forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of April 11, 2022.

Memorial Day Holiday Travel Period:

For purposes of this forecast, the Memorial Day holiday travel period is defined as the fivedays from Thursday, May 26 to Monday, May 30. The five-day holiday length is consistent with previous holiday periods.

About AAA: 

AAA started in 1902 by automotive enthusiasts who wanted to chart a path for better roads in America and advocate for safe mobility, AAA has transformed into one of North America’s largest membership organizations.

Today, AAA provides roadside assistance, travel, discounts, financial and insurance services to enhance the life journey of 62 million members across North America, including 56 million in the United States.

To learn more about all AAA has to offer or to become amember, visit AAA.com.

About INRIX:

INRIXis the global leader in connected car services and transportation analytics. Leveraging big data and the cloud, INRIX delivers comprehensive services and solutions to help move people, cities and businesses forward.

INRIX’s partners are automakers, governments, mobile operators, developers, advertisers, as well as enterprises large and small.About S&P GlobalS&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence.

We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world.

We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com.

About DKSA:

DK SHIFFLET boasts the industry’s most complete database on U.S. resident travel both in the U.S. and worldwide. Data is collected monthly from a U.S. representative sample, adding over 60,000 traveling households annually and is used daily by leading travel organizations andtheir strategic planning groups.

DK SHIFFLET is an MMGY Global company. As Upstate New York’s largest member services organization, AAA Western and Central New York provides more than 887,000 members with travel, insurance, financial and automotive related services. Since its founding in 1900, AAA has been a leading advocate forthe safety and security

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1 Comment

  1. HAHAHAHAHA Yeah right…… not with the gas/diesel prices skyrocketing higher than they are already!!!!!! Diesel is already up past $7.00 a gallon. LET’S GO BRANDON & that goes for his Mob too.

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